![\"\"](\"https:\/\/battery9999.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/2024-12-17_091202-300x164.jpg\")
<\/p>\nDec 8, 2024<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
EVs are practically<\/span>\u00a0worthless secondhand, because the huge batteries will need expensive replacement after a few years. At least, that\u2019s what\u00a0some<\/a>\u00a0articles<\/a>\u00a0or forum discussions in recent years may lead you to believe. However, while secondhand prices for\u00a0EVs<\/a>\u00a0have\u00a0been plummeting<\/a>, evidence is building that their batteries could last longer than the eight-year warranties most come with. In fact, they could still be very usable even after 20 years, potentially giving full-electric cars a longer useful life than many fossil-fuel equivalents.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is an immense amount of consumer concern around the state of the battery that you buy in a secondhand vehicle,\u201d says James Wallace, cofounder of Fortescue\u2019s battery intelligence division\u00a0Elysia<\/a>. His company, formerly Williams Advanced Engineering prior to the Fortescue acquisition, has been developing software to optimize battery performance in intensive-use situations such as motorsport (including\u00a0Formula E<\/a>), mining, and for automaker\u00a0JLR<\/a>. Wallace is hoping Elysia\u2019s technology will filter down to the mainstream, to help \u201cgive consumers more transparency on the secondhand batteries that they buy.\u201d<\/p>\n People base assumptions on existing experience. When it comes to battery longevity, that\u2019s mostly likely going to be their\u00a0smartphones<\/a>. Most of us see the battery life of our handsets start to drop after a couple of years. Apple\u2019s\u00a0Batterygate<\/a>\u00a0likely won\u2019t have helped with the popular image of the durability of lithium-ion cells, either.<\/p>\n But there is growing indication that EV batteries are much sturdier than those in smartphones. Just for starters, you don\u2019t tend to recharge your EV every day like your handset. It might be as infrequently as once a week or less. Real-world studies show how this affects an electric car\u2019s battery. Consulting firm\u00a0P3<\/a>\u00a0recently analyzed 7,000 fleet electric vehicles, in partnership with Austrian battery testing specialist\u00a0Aviloo<\/a>. Their report showed that, on average, EV batteries have 90 percent capacity after 100,000 kilometers of driving, and at 300,000 kilometers they still have 87 percent of their original kilowatts left.<\/p>\n Similarly, data from fleet telematics company\u00a0Geotab<\/a>\u00a0has revealed that battery depletion is much lower than originally predicted over time. While the P3 research is based on vehicles between three and five years old, mapping remaining battery capacity against mileage, the Geotab analysis looks at age. \u201cWe\u00a0did a study in 2019<\/a>, and then we did\u00a0a more recent study<\/a>\u00a0as well,\u201d says Charlotte Argue, senior manager for sustainable mobility at Geotab. \u201cThe most recent study was 11 different models and brands. Our 2019 study included 23 different models with multiple generations.\u201d<\/p>\n In both these reports, Geotab was tracking the state of charge and measuring the energy flow of the vehicle in use, which was also the approach taken by P3 and Aviloo. \u201cUsing that we can estimate at any given time what the total battery capacity is in that vehicle’s life,\u201d says Argue. \u201cPlotted over time, we can start to look at trends of how battery capacity is changing. In the most recent study, we looked at over 5,000 vehicles, and many trips.\u201d Geotab saw that the average degradation rate was just 1.8 percent per year. In Geotab’s 2019 study, it was 2.3 percent per year. \u201cThis most recent study didn’t have as many of the early-gen vehicles,\u201d says Argue, \u201ctelling us that battery management systems are getting better, and batteries are lasting longer.<\/p>\n If this 1.8 percent annual degradation continued in a linear fashion, after 10 years an EV would still have 82 percent of its battery capacity, much more than the 70 percent most batteries are warrantied for after eight years.<\/p>\n Dial that forward 20 years and the car would still have 64 percent. If a vehicle started off with 300 miles of WLTP-rated range (the standard test cycle used in Europe), it could have 192 miles of range 20 years later. That remains quite usable, and now there are lots of cars on the market that begin with well over 300 miles of WLTP range.<\/p>\n Of course, there is still guesswork involved here, because there are no 20-year-old mainstream EVs, and precious few even over 10 years. Many of the latter are\u00a0Nissan Leafs<\/a>, which lacked the thermal management that keeps batteries in their best health, so they probably aren\u2019t the best guide for more modern EVs.<\/p>\n But\u00a0BMW i3<\/a>\u00a0cars from a decade ago are\u00a0reportedly faring well<\/a>, with most still providing\u00a0over 80 percent<\/a>\u00a0of their original capacity. BMW, which has conducted its own studies, confirmed to WIRED that i3 batteries have lasted considerably longer than the company expected. Indeed, in 2023, BMW UK purchased the oldest i3 the company could find in its Approved Used network for testing. It was a 2013 BEV model fitted with a 22.6-kWh battery, chosen purely on age. The car had 83 percent battery capacity after almost 10 years on the road.<\/p>\n Tesla Model S vehicles from 2013 show a similar capacity, according to Plug In America results\u00a0reported by Nimblefins<\/a>. Tesla even has a 2015 Model S in its UK press fleet with more than 250,000 miles on the clock, on the same battery, with approximately 86 percent of its original capacity remaining.<\/p>\n However, Argue advises caution. \u201cWe can’t predict the future. It’s 1.8 percent per year to date,\u201d she says. \u201cThere is an argument that there could be what we call a heel curve towards the end of the life of the vehicle, where the battery starts degrading faster than it did for most of its life. We haven’t observed enough bad vehicles hitting that heel to be able to predict or analyze when that will happen. All we can say right now is if it continues to degrade at the average rate that we’re seeing, these batteries should last 20 years or more.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe do see variation across different vehicles and models,\u201d continues Argue. There are other factors as well. \u201cSo far, we haven\u2019t seen a significant impact from high mileage on degradation rates, so you shouldn’t be afraid to use your EV.\u201d This finding is in line with P3\u2019s research.<\/p>\n \u201cBut we have seen a correlation with the frequency of DC rapid charging,\u201d warns Argue. \u201cCars that frequently rapid-charged did have an observable increase in degradation rates.\u201d<\/p>\n Hot weather is also a factor that affects durability. \u201cThe worst case was three times more for a particular model driven in hot climates and using frequent rapid charging,\u201d says Argue. This would mean losing 5.4 percent of battery capacity per year. However, \u201cthe best had on average 1 percent degradation per year. It’s definitely a positive trend we’re seeing.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWhen the electric vehicle market started, there was a large concern around the factors that can lead to increased battery degradation,\u201d says Neil Cawse, CEO of Geotab. \u201cFor example, discharging completely, charging in cold weather versus warm weather, using high-speed charging versus low-speed charging. But battery tech has gotten much better, particularly around management systems\u2014for example, making sure that lithium-ion cells charge properly when cold.\u201d<\/p>\n This better battery performance could provide longer warranties for a higher remaining capacity. Toyota already offers a 10-year warranty on its EV batteries, and MG has been experimenting with\u00a0a lifetime guarantee<\/a>\u00a0in Thailand. \u201cYou still generally have warranties that promise 70 percent state of health at eight years, but the degradation that we’re seeing on those batteries is much less,\u201d says Wallace.<\/p>\n However, research so far has been based on how the car\u2019s systems report the battery\u2019s state of health. \u201cI would take all those values with a pinch of salt,\u201d says Wallace. \u201cThe reported state of health on the dashboard that the customer sees is often significantly different from what the\u00a0actual<\/em>\u00a0state of health is from that battery.\u201d According to a report\u00a0published by Elysia<\/a>\u00a0in 2023, the true state of health can be up to 9 percent different from what is reported.<\/p>\n Another issue is the buffer that manufacturers leave in their batteries, which is the difference between the net and gross capacity in kWh. \u201cOEMs are oversizing these batteries,\u201d says Wallace. However, Argue explains that \u201cthere must be some safety buffer, because what we know from battery science is that if a battery sits completely full or completely empty for a prolonged period, that causes more stress. Having a buffer protects the battery from degradation.\u201d<\/p>\n Wallace reckons this buffer is overly conservative, given the low degradation being seen with EV batteries. \u201cThey don’t need as much excess capacity,\u201d he says. \u201cSmaller buffers mean smaller batteries, bringing down the cost of EVs.\u201d Trouble is, Wallace believes many traditional automakers don\u2019t yet have the necessary data about their own batteries to take this step.<\/p>\n Still, if batteries continue to last like the studies from P3 and Geotab imply, EVs could well be in better condition than combustion engine vehicles of the same mileage and age. The rest of an EV is less expensive to run as well. \u201cThe cost of\u00a0maintenance is significantly lower<\/a>,\u201d says Cawse. \u201cYou maintain the brake pads and change the wipers\u2014and that\u2019s about it.\u201d<\/p>\n A 10-year-old EV could be almost as good as new, and a 20-year-old one still very usable. That could be yet another disruption to an automotive industry that relies on cars mostly heading to the junkyard after 15 years.<\/p>\nBuilt to Last<\/h2>\n
We Don\u2019t Know How Long EV Batteries Will Last \u2026 Yet<\/h2>\n
Your EV Could Still Be Good After 20 Years<\/h2>\n